Land use change modelling in an urban region with simultaneous population growth and shrinkage including planning and governance feedbacks

In the EU-project PLUREL we develop scenarios for future land use development in European urban regions facing population growth or shrinkage. We combine the spatially explicit modelling work with a participatory approach to involve stakeholder knowledge on drivers and policy instruments to steer land use development. Our scenario technique aims at incorporating feedbacks from planning into land use modelling. For modelling land use futures and options of the urban region of LeipzigHalle, Germany, the MOLAND cellular automata model was used. To integrate stakeholder knowledge into the functionality of MOLAND and, so doing, to develop locally adapted land use storylines was the major purpose of a respective 1-day scenario workshop with local experts and practitioners. First, MOLAND model results stimulated the discussion about both impacts and steering options of future land development. Second, three predefined storylines were transferred into maps in a planning game. Participants created future land use patterns, assessed their drivers and impacts and reflected the instruments they would use to steer such a land use development. The resulting maps and the new knowledge about steering instruments were again used to improve the MOLAND model setup for Leipzig-Halle. So doing, we can feed stakeholders’ expert knowledge into the modelling work. Overall, quite positive experiences concerning the potentials of such a transdiciplinary approach have been made.